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The OECD’s forecasts combine expert judgement with a variety of existing and new information relevant to current and prospective developments.
This analysis builds on the work of Sédillot and Pain (2003) and Mourougane (2006) in using short term economic indicators to predict quarterly movements in GDP by efficiently exploiting all available monthly and quarterly information.
Thus the likely impact of combined and individual changes in assumptions and new information on key aggregates can be assessed in consistent fashion for each of the major economies and economic groupings.
These results are mechanical and therefore intended to be no more than a guide to the informed judgments of country and topic experts on the underlying “forces acting”.
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